Real Middle East Politics

Context. Analysis. Clarity

  • Beyond False Choices: American Public Opinion and U.S. Middle East Strategy

    Carla B. Abdo-Katsipis Should the United States confront Iran or pursue diplomacy? Should Washington stand unequivocally with Israel or place greater emphasis on protecting Palestinian civilians? Should military success be measured by targets destroyed or by political outcomes achieved? American debates over the Middle East increasingly present these questions as binary choices. Yet five University… Read more

  • The costs of integration: the strategic risks of Deepening U.S.-Israel military cooperation

    Carla B. Abdo-Katsipis The military relationship between the United States and Israel is among Washington’s most extensive security partnerships. Over decades, the two countries have developed unprecedented levels of cooperation in intelligence sharing, weapons development, missile defense, military exercises, and strategic planning. This integration has strengthened Israel’s military capabilities and expanded Washington’s influence in the… Read more

  • When Protection Becomes Exposure: Why America’s Arab Allies Are Reassessing the U.S. Security Umbrella

    Carla B. Abdo-Katsipis The latest exchange between Washington and Tehran may ultimately be remembered less for the missiles that were launched than for the strategic questions they raised across the Arabian Peninsula. Following renewed American strikes inside Iran, Tehran responded by targeting facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait while simultaneously placing the region on notice that… Read more

  • when foreign policy becomes personal: the strategic risks of presidential decision-making on iran

    Carla B. Abdo-Katsipis For decades, American presidents have sought to convince allies and adversaries alike that U.S. foreign policy rests on enduring national interests rather than the preferences of any single leader. That credibility has long been one of Washington’s greatest strategic assets. Today, however, the distinction between American strategy and presidential personality is becoming… Read more

  • Military Leverage and the Limits of Coercion: Lessons from Israel and Lebanon

    Carla B. Abdo-Katsipis Introduction Military force can reshape the strategic environment of a conflict, but it rarely determines the political order that follows. Battlefield success may restore deterrence, alter the balance of power, or compel adversaries to reconsider their choices. Lasting peace, however, depends on institutions capable of implementing agreements, governments able to exercise legitimate… Read more

  • The Limits of Leverage: Israeli Strategic Autonomy and the Future of American Leadership in the Middle East

    Carla B. Abdo-Katispis Introduction For much of the past half-century, the United States and Israel have maintained one of the closest bilateral relationships in modern international politics. Their partnership rests on an extensive network of military cooperation, intelligence sharing, diplomatic coordination, technological innovation, and shared democratic institutions. American military assistance has helped preserve Israel’s qualitative… Read more

  • Trump’s turkey pivot: lifting sanctions, considering f-35s, and reordering security in the middle east

    Carla B. Abdo-Katsipis For nearly seven years, U.S.-Turkey relations have been defined by mistrust. Turkey’s purchase of the Russian-made S-400 air defense system in 2019 led to its removal from the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program, sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), and one of the deepest crises in bilateral relations… Read more

  • Hamas is giving up government, not power

    Carla B. Abdo-Katsipis When reports emerged that Hamas was prepared to dissolve its de facto government in Gaza and transfer civilian administration to a Palestinian technocratic committee, many observers interpreted the announcement as an extraordinary concession. After nearly two decades of governing Gaza, Hamas appeared to be stepping aside. Yet this interpretation mistakes government for… Read more